Shamrock Shuffle 2016 Pre-Race Thoughts

Another Shamrock Shuffle 8k takes place in less than 48 hours. However, my race strategy is still up in the air. My main goal this spring has been to run a PR marathon at Carmel (in two weeks), which means that doing well at the Shamrock will take a backseat to my marathon goal. So, although I'll start the Shamrock at a relatively fast clip - if things aren't feeling right during the race - I'll simply slow down and enjoy the course and accept a positive split with a smile. No sense in forcing something that isn't there or forcing my legs into an injury. If I have to slow down, I just need to finish the Shamrock in order to score team competition points and possibly some team CARA points as well. So at least there's that!

If I wanted to "race the race" on Sunday, how fast could I run it? Well, I would say I am in better shape than last year when I ran it in a second fastest PR of 31:13. I've done a lot more miles leading up to this year's race:

	Shamrock 2015	Shamrock 2016	Difference
8 weeks prior to the race total	393 miles	543 miles	150 miles
Average miles per week	49/mpw	68/mpw

So in 2016 I've put in exactly 150 miles more in the eight weeks leading up to this race vs. 2015. That makes sense since last year I was only training for a spring half marathon, and this year I've been training for a full marathon. Could I run faster than last year? Maybe, but those extra 150 miles have been at a slower marathon pace, so my legs might lack speed this year. My estimated 8k pace is only 11 seconds slower than my 5k pace (6:09 vs. 5:58). It might be hard to coax that kind of speed out of my legs since they haven't had to run that fast in quite awhile. In fact I haven't run a race this short since July 4th!  Bottom line: Last year, I may have had less training, but I had more speedwork which may have been more conducive to a faster Shamrock.

Shufflin' in 2015

I guess we shall see if I even have a race strategy on Sunday, or if things stay up in the air and I make pacing decisions on the fly once the starting gun goes off!