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| Shamrock Shuffle 2016 |
But,
I have been running out of my shoes lately, setting a 10 mile PR three weeks ago and an 8k PR last week. Based on both of those runs, the pace equivalent charts show that I should be able to comfortably run a sub-three hour marathon which would be about a 6:48/mile pace.
So,
what to do? Part of me just wants the 3:05 PR, but another part of me says: "I may never again be in this kind of shape again, so just go for the damn sub-3:00!" If the weather is conducive to a fast pace that latter part of me will probably win out and I will just go for 2:59:59. Regardless of which pace I choose, I know that I run best when I negative split, so I will still take it relatively slowly over the first six miles to leave myself feeling fresh for the back 20. If at any point after mile six I feel like the faster time isn't gonna happen, I can slow down and hopefully still crawl to a PR. I realize that this goes against the "don't bank miles" philosophy, but a PR is still a PR.
I've also kicked around running with a pace group. From what I've read, running in a pack is beneficial to faster times and I've yet to run an entire marathon with a pace group. If I do run in the 3:00 group, they will likely start at a fast clip and try to hold it for all 26.2, which may be outside my comfort zone. However, the course has a net elevation drop over in the first half, so maybe an early fast pace would not be as hard as I think?
In any case, I'm really looking forward to the race, which I take as a good indicator that I'm ready to line up and get running. My main mantras are "no pressure" and "just relax". We can never know how much magic a race has in store for us until we start running.
Duuuuuuuude. Weather is still looking fab for Saturday. I say go for it if you feel good at mile 6. But also going with a pace group could be good- as long as you know what to expect from their strategy beforehand. I think you're going to have an amazing race this weekend. Im so excited for you!!
ReplyDeleteThanks dude, I am really hoping that forecast hangs on. It can do whatever it wants after 11:00 am just as long as it's nice and cool beforehand! Yes, I am starting to think mile 6 is where I'll make my "move" - albeit very slowly. You're going to have an amazing race as well! Thanks again!
DeleteIf you sub-3, I just don't know what to say...I'm just so wowed by your paces and your humility. I think you should start posting your yoga poses so I can really see what you've got...
ReplyDeleteAll kidding aside...I cannot wait to see what you do this weekend!
You don't want to see my yoga poses, they are nothing compared to the precision on display in your photos! Thanks!
DeleteI'm also in the gaggle of runners excited for you!! I'd recommend talking to the pacers morning of or at the expo to find out their strategies because sometimes they run evenly from start to finish, sometimes they ease in, etc. That way, you won't be surprised. At any rate, I hope you're going into this race experience with a cool confidence knowing that you're ready! Lots of people believe in you (including me!). You got this! No running platitudes necessary ;)
ReplyDeleteYay for my excited gaggle of supporters! Yes, I should talk to the pacers to see if we share the same strategies. If they ease in then I'll probably join them. As you know, trying for a goal time over the distance of a marathon is never easy, so I appreciate the support (and the non-platitudes)! Thanks again!! :)
DeleteDon't overthink it! Just run by feel. You've got this. If you're always stronger on the back half, mile 6 isn't a good marker for time goals, IMO. Wait until 18-20 instead?
ReplyDeleteGood luck! I'll be cheering you from my couch :)
You are right about mile 6 not being a good marker for time goals and you are right that the race doesn't begin until about mile 20. However, I am thinking about speeding up only slightly (5 seconds per mile) at around mile 6 and then drop another 10 seconds per mile at mile 20. I am hoping the two gradual pace increases over the course of the race will be easier than one big one near the end. Thanks for the well wishes. Have a beer for me while you sit or lay on the couch! :)
DeleteI think your strategy to be conservative the first 6 miles is a sound one. The calculators that tell me what I "should" be capable of are always a tad aggressive in my experience. That said, I believe sub 3 is well in your wheelhouse and I could not be more excited for you! Go for the gusto!
ReplyDeleteThanks Marcia. I also have never had luck with those calculators, but even when I plug in my time and add 5 minutes to the "marathon equivalent time", I still get somewhere aroung a 3 hour marathon! Oh well, we shall see. Thanks for your support!
DeleteGo get 'em, Pete! You are going to ROCK it out in Carmel!!!
ReplyDeleteI like your strategy of taking it easy during the first six miles. I've had both good and bad experiences with pace groups, personally. At the Illinois Half Marathon, my pacer was fantastic - he was like a metronome! But I've had other pacers who definitely strayed from the prescribed splits, then overcorrected in subsequent miles, etc. If you do decide to run with a pace group, I would still be cautious of monitoring the splits on your own!
I think if the strategy to start more conservatively and then speed up slowly over the course of the race has worked for you in the past (and we have blog post evidence it does) then you should stick to it. I know there are some benefits to being in the pace group so I would agree with other that you should talk to the pacer beforehand and see if their strategy matches yours! Good luck this weekend!
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