- Held in my neighborhood,
- The home of my 5k PR
- A race I haven't run in three years
- Held at a time (now) where I am starting to feel fast
Race Predictor Methodology: I simply took my average mileage and average training paces in the weeks leading up to two past 5k events and compared them to my current training weeks:
Analysis: My nine week base mileage is lacking (31 miles vs. 41 miles) so I have to worry about my endurance. Speed-wise, I've been speedier the last 3 weeks (7:48 average) than in 2010 or 2012.
Conclusion: My low base mileage does not point to a PR performance - I won't be able to hold three sub-6 miles in a row. However, my speedier training over the last 3 weeks bodes well for at least a decent last half mile kick. I am estimating a 18:50 to 19:10 performance. I should reach this estimate if I do the following:
- Hold back in the first mile
- Slowly lower the hammer over miles 2 to 2.6
- Slam the hammer down with a vengeance from 2.6 until I cross the line
In any case, I am excited to see what will really happen.
That sounds like a perfect plan! It makes me so happy to read that you are feeling well and get to run this race this year! :)
ReplyDeleteI hope it's a perfect plan! :) Thanks. As you can probably tell, I'm sooo happy to be able to run this year (keeping fingers crossed that it stays this way)!
DeleteGood luck!! I'm bummed that we have a wedding Saturday night so I'll be skipping my neighborhood race.
ReplyDeleteThanks! Yeah, too bad that both are on the same weekend. Have fun at the wedding!
DeleteI love how much thought you've put into this. I hope you surprise yourself at the race. My 5k PR is here in my neighborhood as well. Funny!
ReplyDeleteThanks, I guess I like to try and use logic when race planning, even though most of the logic goes out the window once the gun sounds. Maybe local races are more relaxing (which helps us run faster) because we're in familiar territory?
DeleteDamn Pete, to go from being in injury jail there for a while to a 19 minute 5k would be pretty awesome.
ReplyDeleteI still don't have an exact plan for Sunday. I'm doing 8 miles on Friday so I'll see how that goes. So many of my runs have been 5+ miles as of late, I have no idea how I'd fare at a shorter distance now. I hope for at least a course PR. And a tasty brunch.
I am thanking my lucky stars every day that I can stay out of injury jail while still making progress. Yeah, I should be focusing on my upcoming half, but I am looking forward to the shorter distance where I can open up the speed a little. Good luck with the course PR attempt, with all of your training you should have that!
DeleteI love how calculated you are about your performance. You'll kick ass regardless. Rooting for you from CA, man -- way to finally break free from injury jail!!
ReplyDeleteThanks. I guess I obsess a little about race strategy since I've been burned so many times in past races over-estimating my fitness. I may still be over-estimating it now, so I am going to see how I feel after mile 1 and pace myself accordingly. And yes, it is great to be out of injury jail! Thanks for the good vibes, they are extra strong since you are in CA! :)
DeleteI have ZERO race plan for Sunday... I should perhaps work on that since I have some overall 5K goals for the year. Looking forward to seeing you on Sunday!
ReplyDeleteMy advice is to take it easy in mile 1 and then if you feel good, stomp on the accelerator the rest of the way in! Otherwise, just take it easy and have a good training run! See you Sunday!
DeleteGood luck, I'm sure you'll do great. My goal is to come out injury free.
ReplyDeleteThanks. That is a great goal, one that I would be happy with as well! :)
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