My Goal for the 2015 Shamrock Shuffle

Since I haven't raced since the F^3 Half two months ago, and since then I've cut back my weekly mileage, it's hard to figure out where my fitness is at the present and thus what pace I should run the Shamrock Shuffle in 36 hours. So in lieu of a pace calculator, I thought I'd simply look at things that will be in my favor and those that are not so much in my favor when I race on Sunday.

In my favor (= for a fast race):

1. I have done about three track workouts this spring and have made gradual improvements in my speed
2. I haven't really been killing myself on most workouts as I try to follow the 80/20 rule, I hope to be fresher than if I had done loads of worthless yet fast junk miles
3. Despite the smaller weekly mileage, the last eight weeks compare more favorably than those leading up to the 2014 race:

2015: 45, 51, 43, 51, 51, 54, 51, 51 = 397 miles

2014: 07, 00, 05, 02, 16, 24, 34, 40 = 128 miles

Not in my favor (= for a not so fast race):

1. I've had a head cold the last week and a half, which I have tried to ignore, and hopefully won't affect my race too much
2. The wind is forecasted to be above 20 MPH and the temps could be in the 30s. I love the cold, but anything below 45 starts to impact speed. Throw in the wind and some extra layers of clothes and that could add quite a few seconds to my final total
3. I haven't put in extra high mileage which could potentially help me hold a really fast pace for miles four and five

With the BRC post Shamrock Shuffle 2014

Those track workouts were all run while wearing full winter gear, so if I'm able to shed a couple of layers for the race, this should at least make me feel a couple of pounds lighter and this could give me an additional mental boost. The days leading up to most races, I usually am pretty confident with a few percentage points of what I am capable of. But since I can't figure this one out very well, and the forecast still not ideal, I may just try and best last year's time of 32:27. This race will be a mystery until we get underway. See you all Sunday!