- Held in my neighborhood,
- The home of my 5k PR
- A race I haven't run in three years
- Held at a time (now) where I am starting to feel fast
Race Predictor Methodology: I simply took my average mileage and average training paces in the weeks leading up to two past 5k events and compared them to my current training weeks:
Analysis: My nine week base mileage is lacking (31 miles vs. 41 miles) so I have to worry about my endurance. Speed-wise, I've been speedier the last 3 weeks (7:48 average) than in 2010 or 2012.
Conclusion: My low base mileage does not point to a PR performance - I won't be able to hold three sub-6 miles in a row. However, my speedier training over the last 3 weeks bodes well for at least a decent last half mile kick. I am estimating a 18:50 to 19:10 performance. I should reach this estimate if I do the following:
- Hold back in the first mile
- Slowly lower the hammer over miles 2 to 2.6
- Slam the hammer down with a vengeance from 2.6 until I cross the line
In any case, I am excited to see what will really happen.